Fake Fail and W2R4

Iowa State had their chance at glory this week. A win over Nebraska would have left them still controlling their own destiny in the Big 12 North, with their toughest test in between them and a BCS bowl behind them. Instead, a noodle-armed special teams player throws an interception on an overtime 2 point conversion try and the fail crushes down hard on the Cyclone nation. Good teams win close games, and bad ones find ways to fail. Hawkeye fans can be thankful Indiana knows how to fail too, letting Iowa escape with a road win.

Now onto What to Root For in Week 11

1. PAYBACK TIME
Last season Ken O'Keefe's playcalling and the Northwestern defense conspired to hurt our hero, Captain Americanzi. Iowa recieved it's first loss of the season at home, crushing our national championship hopes, and cost us our starting quarterback for the overtime thriller for the Rose Bowl the next week in Columbus. Northwestern runs a similar offense to Indiana, with lots of short passes being the focal point. Persa is a solid QB, and their scheming matches up well with what Iowa likes to do on defense. The line opened at 11.5, but this game figures to be much closer. An Iowa win keeps our BCS hopes alive, and will help all of us forget last years game a little bit. I'm hoping for an Iowa-Michigan State style blowout. Some more vindictive or less forward thinking fans may be rooting for an injury to Dan Persa, but since Iowa is rooting for Northwestern to beat Wisconsin later in the season, this is not in our best interests.

2. Wisconsin loss VS Indiana
Iowa needs Wisconsin to lose to get a Rose Bowl birth. It's not likely to happen against a winless in conference team in Madison, but not impossible. Indiana's offense matches up well against Wisconsin's defense. Watt will not have time to get the Chappel with his quick release, and if the Hoosiers catch some breaks, they could win if Wisconsin has an off day.

3. Ohio State loss VS Penn State
I'm not sure about this one. There is a strong case to be made for wanting Ohio State to win. A win over a more accomplished team makes our resume stronger, and will boost us in the polls if we beat them in the national spotlight on the 20th. However, there is a chance, should Michigan State lose a game, that Ohio State at 10-2 (6-2) could be taken as an at large BCS team over a 10-2 (7-1) Iowa team that hold the head to head victory over them. An Ohio State loss, plus a loss by Sparty and Iowa winning out almost certainly gives Iowa a BCS at-large birth should Wisconsin go to the Rose Bowl.

4. Stanford loss @ Arizona State
Stanford has a great resume and has a chance to make recieve an automatic 3-4 at large bid if they keep winning. Should Auburn lose and TCU makes the title game, the Rose Bowl would not be required to pick a non-AQ team as Oregon's replacement, and Stanford would almost certainly get selected as the Rose Bowl loves keeping the continuity of their Big 10 - Pac 10 matchup. This leaves 2 remaining at large openings for a second SEC team, a second Big 10 team, and Boise State. While it's likely Boise would be left home in that case, it's not a scenario the Hawkeyes want to end up in.

5. Boise State loss Friday @ Idaho
A loss by Boise all but guarantees the Big 10 gets its usual 2 BCS births. Who the 2 teams are is uncertain, but it's definitely better for Iowa to not have to make the Rose Bowl to make the BCS.

Wins over Wins Rankings

I have a fairly simple ranking system of a teams accomplishments during the season, which I call the wins over wins model. This isn't a measure of how good a team is, and one team being ranked higher doesn't necessarily mean they would be favored over a team ranked lower on a neutral field, but instead is a measure of a teams accomplishments during the season.
They aren't in order because I'm lazy, but the higher number the better a teams accomplishments. This system would have Auburn playing TCU for the title.

Team/WoW/GamesPlayed/WoWperGP

Oregon	24	8		3
Auburn	44	9		4.888889
Texas Christian	34	9		3.777778
Boise State	24	7		3.428571
Ohio State	28	9		3.111111
Iowa	26	8		3.25
Wisconsin	23	8		2.875
Michigan State	34	9		3.777778
Alabama	24	8		3
Stanford	22	8		2.75
Arizona	25	8		3.125
Utah	22	8		2.75
Nebraska	30	8		3.75
Oklahoma	28	8		3.5
Louisiana State	30	8		3.75
Missouri	35	8		4.375
Oklahoma State	26	8		3.25
Arkansas	22	8		2.75
South Carolina	24	8		3
Baylor	22	9		2.444444
Virginia Tech	20	8		2.5
Mississippi State	26	9		2.888889
Nevada	22	8		2.75
Florida State	20	8		2.5
North Carolina State	25	8		3.125

Eventually I'm going to make an iterative wowowowowowow rating involving all college football teams, but it will take some time and this will have to do for now.

Spooky Halloween + W2R4 Week 10

In what may have been the coolest fuck you of the season, Tyler Sash laterals to Micah Hyde during an interception return that Hyde runs back for a TD. If you didn't go crazy after that play, I'm not sure you can call yourself an Iowa fan. Last season on the 4th quarter drive that gave MSU the lead, their offense pulled a hook and lateral to convert a 3rd and 18. Iowa came back to win that game, but the defense clearly wanted their revenge this year and got it during the Hawk's 37-6 victory.

In a weird sequence of events, Iowa State at 5-4, is in control of their own destiny to reach a BCS bowl game, while the 6-2 Hawkeyes who demolished the Cyclones 35-7 earlier this season, need a Wisconsin loss to be assured of a BCS spot. ISU, at 3-2 in conference, still has home games against Nebraska and Missouri, and by winning out guarantees them the Big 12 North crown and a chance to win the Big 12's automatic bid into the BCS in the Big 12 Championship Game. This is extremely unlikely to happen, as Iowa State sucks, and struggled to beat a dreadful Kansas team last week, but if they pull it off, LOL BCS. Iowa's chances of a BCS game at 10-2 are pretty good, but not guaranteed. If Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all win out, LOL Sparty would get the leagues auto-bid and the Rose Bowl, and most likely 11-1 Wisconsin with it's similarly huge fanbase, better record, and win over Iowa would get the second spot.

What to Root For Week 10

1. Iowa win @ Indiana
You probably didn't need to be told this, but Iowa needs to hold serve vs a vastly inferior opponent on the road. The opening line was 17 points, and the Hawks should cruise to victory, but let's not forget Iowa fell behind last year before charging back to cover the 17.5 and win by 18. With Stanzi playing much better this season, I would be surprised if the Hoosiers managed to get out in front of us again. Look forward to another victory along the lines of last weeks drubbing of Michigan State, Hawk fans.

2. Purdue win vs Wisconsin
To win the Rose Bowl spot, Iowa needs to win and and have Wisconsin lose a game. Purdue has been riddled with injuries this season, and Bucky opened as 20 points favorites, but we can dream. Wisconsin's most losable game left comes November 20 @ Michigan, but should easily beat Purdue and Indiana the next two weeks.

3. Michigan State loss vs Minnesota
A Michigan State loss greatly improves Iowa's chances of making a BCS bowl, even without a Wisconsin loss. If Iowa beats Ohio State, MSU simply has to win out to win the Big 10. This Means the 2 BCS spots would almost assuredly go to MSU and Wisconsin. A loss by MSU puts them a tier below what would be the two 7-1 in conference teams Iowa and Wisconsin, and gives Iowa a chance to be selected as a BCS at large at 10-2 (7-1) over 10-2 (6-2) Ohio State.

4. Arizona win @ Stanford
It doesn't make much of a difference, but if Arizona wins out, not only does Iowa look better, but they would make the Rose Bowl. I for one want a chance to avenge a disappointing loss which shouldn't have been a game if Iowa hadn't played awfully in the first half.

5. Iowa State win vs Nebraska.
I know, I know, what am I doing here? Well, Nebraska can and should dominate Iowa State, but the absurdly tiny chance ISU wins out, Iowa wins out, MSU loses (Wisconsin to Rose Bowl) and Iowa gets an at-large bid to stomp all over the Clones again would be too much LOL to pass up. I realize that even if the ridiculously unlikely things above happen, no BCS bowl in their right mind would pick this matchup, but it would be really fun to beat them again. Though I suppose ISU making a BCS bowl would convince them even more that they deserve to be talked about in the same breath as Iowa, which simply isn't true. If only the Big 12 could've fallen apart this summer relegating ISU to the MAC.

Ohio State is on bye, but them losing to either Penn State or Michigan at home would all but guarantee Iowa a BCS birth should Iowa win out and either of Wisconsin or Michigan State lose.

What to Root For Week 9

Well, our coaching staff and special teams decided we didn't get to win, but I'm sure Clayborn will threaten to eat them if they screw up like that again, so onto next week and salvaging the season with a Rose Bowl bid, or possibly a BCS at large. Either one of those things will require Iowa to win the rest of our games, so here we go:

1. Iowa win vs Michigan State
No 3 loss team has ever gotten a BCS at large bid, and since the Big Ten isn't the ACC or Big East, it will be pretty much impossible for Iowa to win the conference with 3 losses, 2 being in conference. This means Iowa has to win out, starting with beating BCS #5 undefeated Michigan State at home this week. Though I suppose, if you needed to be told Iowa winning was a good thing for Iowa, you probably aren't smart enough to know how to read and what I'm writing here is just some boring pattern on your computer screen.

2. Wisconsin loss @ Purdue
If both Wisconsin and Iowa win out, Wisconsin will be 11-1 and ranked higher in the BCS at the end of the year. Michigan State would go to the Rose Bowl as conference champion, and Wisconsin would be a near lock to get the second bcs bid over Iowa. Iowa's fanbase will help us jump a lot of schools in at large selections, but Wisconsin has a similar fanbase, and that combined with a higher ranking, better record, and beating us head to head we would be out of luck. The BCS doesn't allow 3 teams from one conference to qualify in the same season, so Iowa would be out of luck. Iowa needs Wisconsin to lose a game, so until they do, Iowa fans should be hoping for a Badgers loss every week.

3. Ohio State loss @ Minnesota
This isn't happening, but we can dream.

Not a whole lot else matters. It would be nice if teams ranked above us in the BCS standings lost, but other than Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State losing and Iowa winning, not a whole lot else effects our chances at getting into a BCS game.

What to root for week 8

Iowa's dream for a national title this year for the most part disappeared after being upset at Arizona earlier this season. There is, however, a remote chance that some Inception-style dream within a dream thing is going on and we can still make it. Iowa needs a lot of help for that to happen, but it is possible. Important games for Iowa on this weeks schedule:

1. Iowa win vs Wisconsin
The Hawks have had Iowa Jr's number in recent years, but that doesn't stop Wisconsin from being a tough test. Ranked 13th in the current BCS standings and coming off a victory against then number 1 Ohio State, the Badgers ground game should be a hard matchup for Iowa. This is a marquee match-up of what could be the nations best offensive and defensive lines. Obviously Iowa needs a win to keep national title hopes alive, but this game is also important in Iowa's quest to win the Big Ten and make it back to the Rose Bowl.

2. Michigan State win @ Northwestern
Sparty is undefeated and ranked ahead of Iowa at #7 in the BCS standings, but hoping for a loss by them so Iowa jumps ahead is short-sighted thinking. The Hawks are helped much more by an MSU victory, creating a second straight high-profile showdown in Kinnick for Iowa next week. The boost that comes from beating a #6 (assuming Sparty jumps the loser of the LSU-Auburn game) team on national tv is much more important than jumping ahead of Sparty a week early. Since Iowa will play both teams in their conference slate, a Northwestern victory isn't the end of the world, but the exposure that would come from a second quality win in 2 weeks would be wonderful, not to mention how much fun it would be to have ESPN's College Gameday in Iowa City again.


3. Ohio State win vs Purdue
While the Buckeyes are currently ahead of Iowa in the BCS standings, Iowa will have a chance to knock them off at home later in the season, and in similar reasoning for wanting the Spartans to win given above, it's a much better win for Iowa to beat a highly ranked Buckeye team rather than one seemingly struggling already before playing us. In addition to this, Iowa does not play the Boilermakers in this years Big Ten slate, so a win by them hurts our overall strength of schedule in the computer rankings. An Ohio State loss hurts our national title aspirations, but the silver lining is it helps our Rose Bowl chances, as Iowa would still win the conference over the 2 loss in conference Buckeyes, even if they lost to them in November, so long as the Hawks take care of business in their other games.

4. Indiana win @ Illinois
This one is pretty simple. Iowa plays Indiana, but doesn't play Illinois. To make our road win look better, it's helpful for Indiana to win. In addition, another Illinois loss makes currently undefeated BCS #11 Missouri's win over them earlier this year less impressive, and anything that hurts them in the computers helps us. Plus, I don't know about the rest of you, but Illinois fans hate Iowa, so it makes me happy when Illinois loses.

5. Minnesota win vs Penn State
Minnesota has recently fired their coach, and by all rights isn't a very good football team. Penn State's coach probably should be gone, and their team isn't very good either. Iowa will have played both of these teams by the end of the season, so who wins isn't very important to us. However, if Iowa is going to have a chance to jump a 1-loss Alabama without them losing again, their out of conference victory against Penn State losing it's luster helps. It's hard for Iowa fans to cheer for the Gophers, but every little bit counts in the computer rankings.

6. Arizona win vs Washington
Losing is never good, but losing to a highly ranked Arizona team on the road is less bad than losing to a mediocre middle of the Pac 10 team. Arizona winning helps Iowa both in the polls and the computers, so cheering for them should be pretty obvious.

7. Iowa State win @ Texas
It would be helpful, but it's simply not going to happen. Iowa State is not good, and definitely not good enough to win on the road at Texas.

8. Ball State win @ Toledo
Simple enough, teams Iowa beat winning helps us.

9. Eastern Illinois win vs Murray State
EIU is terrible. They won't win, but if they do it helps the Hawks a tiny bit.

10. UCLA win @ Oregon
Oregon has to lose sooner or later for Iowa to have a chance at the title. It won't be this week, but we can hope.

Other important games:

LSU @ Auburn
Both of these SEC teams are undefeated and ranked ahead of Iowa in the BCS. One of them losing is good for us, and that's just what's going to happen. What we really need is the winner of this game to lose another game down the road.

Oklahoma @ Missouri
Both teams are undefeated and ranked ahead of Iowa in the BCS, so one of them losing should help us jump up. For my money, I'd root for a Missouri victory as they have a losable game the next week @ Nebraska. Iowa needs Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all to lose sooner or later, and Missouri is less likely to run the table if they win than Oklahoma, especially since they would also have to win a likely rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game.

Nebraska @ Oklahoma State
OK State is undefeated, so them losing would be nice. Especially since it means they can beat Oklahoma at home later in the year without being undefeated and staying ahead of Iowa. Nebraska losing takes them completely out of the title picture, as they are currently in the same position as Iowa, as a one loss team needing to win out and get some help to make it.

Alabama loss @ Tennessee
2 losses takes Alabama out of the picture, and lets them knock off LSU and Auburn later in the year without jumping the Hawks.

Stanford loss vs Washington State
Stanford isn't going to lose this game, but if they do, Iowa moves up.

Air Force win @ TCU
Colorado State win @ Utah
While Iowa would probably jump either of these MWC teams should they go undefeated, either of them losing helps us out. Air Force has a much better shot at the upset than CSU here.

Get your own uniforms

First off, congratulations to Iowa State their first-team offense managed to score a touchdown on our third-string defense in the fourth quarter of Iowa's blowout win. It's been a long time since you go into the end zone vs Iowa, so enjoy it.

Onto the main topic for this post; you aren't USC so get your own uniforms. It is terribly embarrassing for a team in a BCS conference to have copied the uniforms of another team in a BCS conference. You are supposed to be on the same level as them, so show some self respect and have your own identity. If you don't know what I'm talking about, take a look at this comparison between USC and ISU uniforms. Your team used to be red and yellow, but instead you are now maroon. Stop that nonsense. Also, stop adding navy blue to your colors as well. 4 colors is too many, and no self respecting team does that. Navy, yellow, maroon, and white. That's ridiculous. Red and yellow, those are your colors. Call it cardinal and gold if you want, but stop trying to pretend you are a real football program and go back to the wanna-be Chiefs look, join the MAC, and never bother the Hawkeyes again with any delusions about being on the same level as the University of Iowa.

It's that time of year again

Iowa is really good, and Iowa State is really bad, so I had no qualms betting 55 to win 50 on Iowa -13.5.

Also, if you watched Iowa beat Eastern Illinois last week on the Big Ten Network, the guy in the second half attempting to spin the head of their worthless Panther mascot was me. I gave it a couple tries, and probably gave the dude inside of it whiplash, but the head did not spin. The UNI Panther mascot was able to spin his head, so I am disappointed in this guy, but it's kind of cool to get on tv messing with the other teams mascot from the front row.

GO HAWKS!

LOL Sage Rosenfels

I really enjoy this video of former ISU quarterback Sage Rosenfels thinking he's good at football when he's on a field with players who belong in the NFL. The linking is messed up, so it's probably better to right click and then watch it on youtube directly.



With Brett Favre currently pretending to retire again, Rosenfels keeps his job as Tavaris Jackson's backup. I don't expect him to be in the league once the season starts.

Rayshawn Parker is upset! OH NO!

A while back, the monster known as Adrian Clayborn gave a quote to the Des Moines Register that some Cyclones have taken offense to. Clayborn, being the best defensive end in the country, and Adam Rittenberg's #1 Player in the Big Ten has earned the right to say a few things. His quote is, "we're the only team in the state, as far as I know." Now, I can see how some people in Ames take offense to this, but anyone who disagrees should remember that Iowa State has not scored a single touchdown against the Iowa defense since Clayborn first stepped onto the field. When you dominate someone that badly, you earn the right to talk a little trash. What really makes me laugh, is his counterpart on the Cyclones, DE Rayshawn Parker says that ""It upset me. It's like a slap in the face." To be fair to Parker, his head is probably still ringing from the shot he took as a freshman at Kinnick, so almost everything feels like a slap in the face. If you don't remember, it's a video I really like, and can be found in this article.

I am really looking forward to Parker and his teammates trying to do anything but get blown out of the water this year when the come to Kinnick in September. My preliminary line is Iowa -16.5, but things may change depending on loltastically bad the Cyclones perform against Northern Illinois the week before.

C.J. Fiedorowicz

I'm taking credit for everything good Iowa's amazing new tight end recruit does at Iowa.

After an hour or so sitting outside the gate at Kinnick before the Minnesota game, the security people inside start talking to me. They needed to test that the ticket scanners had been updated from basketball the night before, so they let my friend and I get our tickets scanned and head into the stadium early. We slide over to the security entrance behind the drum line, and get to zoom on through early so that we are in the front row by the time people come out of the tunnel to get seats. A short while later recruits come out, and my friend and I, knowing C.J. is visiting for this game, start a chant for him, ask him to come to Iowa, and generally show him the love that only Hawkeye football players get at Iowa. He's an amazing talent at TE, and will likely follow in the tradition of other Iowa TE's to succeed in the NFL. As you probably know, Iowa pitched their second straight shutout vs Minnesota in a 12-0 win, but you may not know that in the coming week, Fiedorowicz would change his plans and would attend Iowa instead of Illinois, largely based on this game. In announcing his decision (article) he gave the following quote:

"I'm set, no more looking around. Last weekend, I was talking to Iowa fans and they knew all about me. You could tell they care about their football over there."

For the next 4 years, C.J. is going to be my guy, and I will be just a little bit happier knowing that I did my part to make the Hawkeyes a better football team.