Iowa State had their chance at glory this week. A win over Nebraska would have left them still controlling their own destiny in the Big 12 North, with their toughest test in between them and a BCS bowl behind them. Instead, a noodle-armed special teams player throws an interception on an overtime 2 point conversion try and the fail crushes down hard on the Cyclone nation. Good teams win close games, and bad ones find ways to fail. Hawkeye fans can be thankful Indiana knows how to fail too, letting Iowa escape with a road win.
Now onto What to Root For in Week 11
1. PAYBACK TIME
Last season Ken O'Keefe's playcalling and the Northwestern defense conspired to hurt our hero, Captain Americanzi. Iowa recieved it's first loss of the season at home, crushing our national championship hopes, and cost us our starting quarterback for the overtime thriller for the Rose Bowl the next week in Columbus. Northwestern runs a similar offense to Indiana, with lots of short passes being the focal point. Persa is a solid QB, and their scheming matches up well with what Iowa likes to do on defense. The line opened at 11.5, but this game figures to be much closer. An Iowa win keeps our BCS hopes alive, and will help all of us forget last years game a little bit. I'm hoping for an Iowa-Michigan State style blowout. Some more vindictive or less forward thinking fans may be rooting for an injury to Dan Persa, but since Iowa is rooting for Northwestern to beat Wisconsin later in the season, this is not in our best interests.
2. Wisconsin loss VS Indiana
Iowa needs Wisconsin to lose to get a Rose Bowl birth. It's not likely to happen against a winless in conference team in Madison, but not impossible. Indiana's offense matches up well against Wisconsin's defense. Watt will not have time to get the Chappel with his quick release, and if the Hoosiers catch some breaks, they could win if Wisconsin has an off day.
3. Ohio State loss VS Penn State
I'm not sure about this one. There is a strong case to be made for wanting Ohio State to win. A win over a more accomplished team makes our resume stronger, and will boost us in the polls if we beat them in the national spotlight on the 20th. However, there is a chance, should Michigan State lose a game, that Ohio State at 10-2 (6-2) could be taken as an at large BCS team over a 10-2 (7-1) Iowa team that hold the head to head victory over them. An Ohio State loss, plus a loss by Sparty and Iowa winning out almost certainly gives Iowa a BCS at-large birth should Wisconsin go to the Rose Bowl.
4. Stanford loss @ Arizona State
Stanford has a great resume and has a chance to make recieve an automatic 3-4 at large bid if they keep winning. Should Auburn lose and TCU makes the title game, the Rose Bowl would not be required to pick a non-AQ team as Oregon's replacement, and Stanford would almost certainly get selected as the Rose Bowl loves keeping the continuity of their Big 10 - Pac 10 matchup. This leaves 2 remaining at large openings for a second SEC team, a second Big 10 team, and Boise State. While it's likely Boise would be left home in that case, it's not a scenario the Hawkeyes want to end up in.
5. Boise State loss Friday @ Idaho
A loss by Boise all but guarantees the Big 10 gets its usual 2 BCS births. Who the 2 teams are is uncertain, but it's definitely better for Iowa to not have to make the Rose Bowl to make the BCS.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Wins over Wins Rankings
I have a fairly simple ranking system of a teams accomplishments during the season, which I call the wins over wins model. This isn't a measure of how good a team is, and one team being ranked higher doesn't necessarily mean they would be favored over a team ranked lower on a neutral field, but instead is a measure of a teams accomplishments during the season.
They aren't in order because I'm lazy, but the higher number the better a teams accomplishments. This system would have Auburn playing TCU for the title.
Team/WoW/GamesPlayed/WoWperGP
Eventually I'm going to make an iterative wowowowowowow rating involving all college football teams, but it will take some time and this will have to do for now.
They aren't in order because I'm lazy, but the higher number the better a teams accomplishments. This system would have Auburn playing TCU for the title.
Team/WoW/GamesPlayed/WoWperGP
| Oregon | 24 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Auburn | 44 | 9 | 4.888889 | ||||
| Texas Christian | 34 | 9 | 3.777778 | ||||
| Boise State | 24 | 7 | 3.428571 | ||||
| Ohio State | 28 | 9 | 3.111111 | ||||
| Iowa | 26 | 8 | 3.25 | ||||
| Wisconsin | 23 | 8 | 2.875 | ||||
| Michigan State | 34 | 9 | 3.777778 | ||||
| Alabama | 24 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Stanford | 22 | 8 | 2.75 | ||||
| Arizona | 25 | 8 | 3.125 | ||||
| Utah | 22 | 8 | 2.75 | ||||
| Nebraska | 30 | 8 | 3.75 | ||||
| Oklahoma | 28 | 8 | 3.5 | ||||
| Louisiana State | 30 | 8 | 3.75 | ||||
| Missouri | 35 | 8 | 4.375 | ||||
| Oklahoma State | 26 | 8 | 3.25 | ||||
| Arkansas | 22 | 8 | 2.75 | ||||
| South Carolina | 24 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Baylor | 22 | 9 | 2.444444 | ||||
| Virginia Tech | 20 | 8 | 2.5 | ||||
| Mississippi State | 26 | 9 | 2.888889 | ||||
| Nevada | 22 | 8 | 2.75 | ||||
| Florida State | 20 | 8 | 2.5 | ||||
| North Carolina State | 25 | 8 | 3.125 |
Eventually I'm going to make an iterative wowowowowowow rating involving all college football teams, but it will take some time and this will have to do for now.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Spooky Halloween + W2R4 Week 10
In what may have been the coolest fuck you of the season, Tyler Sash laterals to Micah Hyde during an interception return that Hyde runs back for a TD. If you didn't go crazy after that play, I'm not sure you can call yourself an Iowa fan. Last season on the 4th quarter drive that gave MSU the lead, their offense pulled a hook and lateral to convert a 3rd and 18. Iowa came back to win that game, but the defense clearly wanted their revenge this year and got it during the Hawk's 37-6 victory.
In a weird sequence of events, Iowa State at 5-4, is in control of their own destiny to reach a BCS bowl game, while the 6-2 Hawkeyes who demolished the Cyclones 35-7 earlier this season, need a Wisconsin loss to be assured of a BCS spot. ISU, at 3-2 in conference, still has home games against Nebraska and Missouri, and by winning out guarantees them the Big 12 North crown and a chance to win the Big 12's automatic bid into the BCS in the Big 12 Championship Game. This is extremely unlikely to happen, as Iowa State sucks, and struggled to beat a dreadful Kansas team last week, but if they pull it off, LOL BCS. Iowa's chances of a BCS game at 10-2 are pretty good, but not guaranteed. If Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all win out, LOL Sparty would get the leagues auto-bid and the Rose Bowl, and most likely 11-1 Wisconsin with it's similarly huge fanbase, better record, and win over Iowa would get the second spot.
What to Root For Week 10
1. Iowa win @ Indiana
You probably didn't need to be told this, but Iowa needs to hold serve vs a vastly inferior opponent on the road. The opening line was 17 points, and the Hawks should cruise to victory, but let's not forget Iowa fell behind last year before charging back to cover the 17.5 and win by 18. With Stanzi playing much better this season, I would be surprised if the Hoosiers managed to get out in front of us again. Look forward to another victory along the lines of last weeks drubbing of Michigan State, Hawk fans.
2. Purdue win vs Wisconsin
To win the Rose Bowl spot, Iowa needs to win and and have Wisconsin lose a game. Purdue has been riddled with injuries this season, and Bucky opened as 20 points favorites, but we can dream. Wisconsin's most losable game left comes November 20 @ Michigan, but should easily beat Purdue and Indiana the next two weeks.
3. Michigan State loss vs Minnesota
A Michigan State loss greatly improves Iowa's chances of making a BCS bowl, even without a Wisconsin loss. If Iowa beats Ohio State, MSU simply has to win out to win the Big 10. This Means the 2 BCS spots would almost assuredly go to MSU and Wisconsin. A loss by MSU puts them a tier below what would be the two 7-1 in conference teams Iowa and Wisconsin, and gives Iowa a chance to be selected as a BCS at large at 10-2 (7-1) over 10-2 (6-2) Ohio State.
4. Arizona win @ Stanford
It doesn't make much of a difference, but if Arizona wins out, not only does Iowa look better, but they would make the Rose Bowl. I for one want a chance to avenge a disappointing loss which shouldn't have been a game if Iowa hadn't played awfully in the first half.
5. Iowa State win vs Nebraska.
I know, I know, what am I doing here? Well, Nebraska can and should dominate Iowa State, but the absurdly tiny chance ISU wins out, Iowa wins out, MSU loses (Wisconsin to Rose Bowl) and Iowa gets an at-large bid to stomp all over the Clones again would be too much LOL to pass up. I realize that even if the ridiculously unlikely things above happen, no BCS bowl in their right mind would pick this matchup, but it would be really fun to beat them again. Though I suppose ISU making a BCS bowl would convince them even more that they deserve to be talked about in the same breath as Iowa, which simply isn't true. If only the Big 12 could've fallen apart this summer relegating ISU to the MAC.
Ohio State is on bye, but them losing to either Penn State or Michigan at home would all but guarantee Iowa a BCS birth should Iowa win out and either of Wisconsin or Michigan State lose.
In a weird sequence of events, Iowa State at 5-4, is in control of their own destiny to reach a BCS bowl game, while the 6-2 Hawkeyes who demolished the Cyclones 35-7 earlier this season, need a Wisconsin loss to be assured of a BCS spot. ISU, at 3-2 in conference, still has home games against Nebraska and Missouri, and by winning out guarantees them the Big 12 North crown and a chance to win the Big 12's automatic bid into the BCS in the Big 12 Championship Game. This is extremely unlikely to happen, as Iowa State sucks, and struggled to beat a dreadful Kansas team last week, but if they pull it off, LOL BCS. Iowa's chances of a BCS game at 10-2 are pretty good, but not guaranteed. If Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all win out, LOL Sparty would get the leagues auto-bid and the Rose Bowl, and most likely 11-1 Wisconsin with it's similarly huge fanbase, better record, and win over Iowa would get the second spot.
What to Root For Week 10
1. Iowa win @ Indiana
You probably didn't need to be told this, but Iowa needs to hold serve vs a vastly inferior opponent on the road. The opening line was 17 points, and the Hawks should cruise to victory, but let's not forget Iowa fell behind last year before charging back to cover the 17.5 and win by 18. With Stanzi playing much better this season, I would be surprised if the Hoosiers managed to get out in front of us again. Look forward to another victory along the lines of last weeks drubbing of Michigan State, Hawk fans.
2. Purdue win vs Wisconsin
To win the Rose Bowl spot, Iowa needs to win and and have Wisconsin lose a game. Purdue has been riddled with injuries this season, and Bucky opened as 20 points favorites, but we can dream. Wisconsin's most losable game left comes November 20 @ Michigan, but should easily beat Purdue and Indiana the next two weeks.
3. Michigan State loss vs Minnesota
A Michigan State loss greatly improves Iowa's chances of making a BCS bowl, even without a Wisconsin loss. If Iowa beats Ohio State, MSU simply has to win out to win the Big 10. This Means the 2 BCS spots would almost assuredly go to MSU and Wisconsin. A loss by MSU puts them a tier below what would be the two 7-1 in conference teams Iowa and Wisconsin, and gives Iowa a chance to be selected as a BCS at large at 10-2 (7-1) over 10-2 (6-2) Ohio State.
4. Arizona win @ Stanford
It doesn't make much of a difference, but if Arizona wins out, not only does Iowa look better, but they would make the Rose Bowl. I for one want a chance to avenge a disappointing loss which shouldn't have been a game if Iowa hadn't played awfully in the first half.
5. Iowa State win vs Nebraska.
I know, I know, what am I doing here? Well, Nebraska can and should dominate Iowa State, but the absurdly tiny chance ISU wins out, Iowa wins out, MSU loses (Wisconsin to Rose Bowl) and Iowa gets an at-large bid to stomp all over the Clones again would be too much LOL to pass up. I realize that even if the ridiculously unlikely things above happen, no BCS bowl in their right mind would pick this matchup, but it would be really fun to beat them again. Though I suppose ISU making a BCS bowl would convince them even more that they deserve to be talked about in the same breath as Iowa, which simply isn't true. If only the Big 12 could've fallen apart this summer relegating ISU to the MAC.
Ohio State is on bye, but them losing to either Penn State or Michigan at home would all but guarantee Iowa a BCS birth should Iowa win out and either of Wisconsin or Michigan State lose.
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